Deux autres candidats orientés modélisation "pratique" et, selon leurs détracteurs, ultra détaillés: GINFORS et EXIOMOD
Ci-après un ensemble de liens qui méritent d'être consultés (mais ça prendra plus que quelques heures...)
Un recueil de rapports de recherche tous plus intéressants les uns que les autres:
Environmental economics - Structural Change and the Resource Efficient Economy
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/enveco/ ... fficiency/
Plus spécifiquement sur EXIOMOD:
Macroeconomic Modelling of the Global Economy-Energy-Environment Nexus
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/enveco/ ... df/TP3.pdf
EXIOMOD is a large scale and highly detailed world model built on the detailed Input-output database EXIOBASE. It is a macro-economic ‘computable general equilibrium’ (CGE) model that divides the global economy in 43 countries and a Rest of World, and 129 industry sectors per country. The model includes 5 types of households, a representation of 29 types GHG and non-GHG emissions, different types of waste, land use and use of material resources (80 types). Moreover, it includes a physical (in addition to the monetary) representation for each material and resource use per sector and country. The model is presently calibrated n the data for 2007. For this study we will recalibrate the model using the available macro-economic data from national accounts for 2012. The model is dynamic and will use the period 2013-2030 as the time horizon for its calculations
Nota: TNO, son concepteur, est un routard des FP7, si je puis dire.
Sur GINFORS en particulier:
Macroeconomic Modelling of the Global Economy - Energy - Environment Nexus
An Overview of Recent Advancements of the Dynamic Simulation Model
GINFORS
http://papers.gws-os.com/gws-paper13-5.pdf
GINFORS contains most of the essential components of an impact assessment model for analysing sustainable ec onomic, social and environmental development within a broader sustainable welfare model . The latter also requires a normative policy decision model as a tool for selecting and assessing the options for action in pursuing the desired goal of sustainable wel fare development . Basic structures of such a model have been derived by Meyer et al. 2013. The positive impact model provide s a description of the “world” with which the effects of the various options for action on the environmental, social and the economi c systems can be assessed and which are important for discussing the welfare issue in globalized world.
Un projet s'appuyant sur GINFORS et EXIOMOD: POLFREE (cité en intro d'un des deux documents précédents)
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/polfree/publications
The project will construct a theoretical framework for the analysis of resource efficiency, with detailed comparison of the trends and policies at EU and Member State (MS) level, cross-country econometric analysis to derive resource-reduction cost curves, and an analysis of business barriers to resource efficiency; thereby developing an enhanced understanding of the drivers of inefficient resource use.
This will lead to an exploration of new concepts and paradigms that can bring about a radical increase in resource efficiency, and a vision for a resource-efficient economy in the EU, with suggestions also for new more resource-efficient business models for firms, and ideas for a global governance regime that can promote resource-efficient economies among the EU's trading partners and more widely will be explored. From its new vision for a resource-efficient Europe, the project will propose new policy mixes, business models and mechanisms of global governance through which resource-efficient economies may be promoted.
This will lead in turn to intensive work on creating, modelling and visualising scenarios for the emergence of resource-efficient economies, through linking quantitative economic and ecological models, and simulating the policies and policy mixes derived in the earlier work, supplemented with appropriate LCA analysis for selected products and sectors, to ensure that the policies and business models in the scenarios lead to adequate absolute decoupling of economic activity from resource use and environmental degradation. The scenarios and associated policy analysis will be given an integrated interpretation across economic, ecological and social dimensions.
The project will be explicitly geared to support policy efforts and initiatives on resource efficiency in the European Commission, and will involve a wide range of stakeholders from business, the policy world, and NGOs. The results will be widely disseminated in a variety of innovative ways.
Bref, ça ne chaume pas côté recherche financée par l'Europe.