Where’s the next property bubble building?

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Suricate
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Where’s the next property bubble building?

#1 Message par Suricate » 29 oct. 2013, 13:40

Where’s the next property bubble building?
CNBC Monday, 28 Oct 2013 | 5:40 AM ET
By: Catherine Boyle
Property prices in developed markets have rebounded from the crash which followed the credit crisis of 2008 – but there are now increasing fears of a new bubble inflating in several locations.

Israel, Canada, Norway, Belgium, Australia, Dubai, Hong Kong, London and Singapore are all causing concern among economists and property market analysts. House prices have risen by close to 40 percent in Israel since 2009, with Norway up by nearly 30 percent and Switzerland by over 20 percent over the same period.
Vous remarquerez que le papier ne parle pas de la France et se concentre sur les pays dont les prix ont explosé depuis 2009.
These house price booms are being fueled by the relative ease with which residents can borrow more money to fund house-buying. After central banks including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) propped up the financial markets with an influx of cheap money, these banks had more credit available for consumers. And those loans are cheaper as a result of historically low interest rates in many countries.
Une immense bulle de crédit, mondiale cette fois ci.
This has led to governments in a number of places taking action to cool the housing market. In Hong Kong, prices last year came to 13 times the average salary, making it the world's most unaffordable city according to Demographia.
13 x le salaire moyen... nullement comparable avec notre bullette :mrgreen:
As this graph from Goldman Sachs demonstrates, the faster real house price appreciation (the rise in house price valuations) has been, the more likely they are to see a slump in the next five years.

Image

Based on this methodology, Israel, Germany, and Switzerland are most likely to see a significant drop in prices, according to Goldman Sachs economists.

But if the ratio of house prices to rent (which can mean that people put off buying homes if it is too high) is taken into account, Belgium, Finland, Norway, and Canada look most in danger.
Donc pour la France : plateau haut et pas d'anticipation de chute des prix pour Goldman Sachs (d'ailleurs je cherche l'étude mais impossible de mettre la main dessus...).

La conclusion :
"Healthy isn't the word that springs to mind but for a while Ben's monetary madness is the ultimate palliative."
Vers l'infini et au delà.

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Gustave de Nancy
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Re: Where’s the next property bubble building?

#2 Message par Gustave de Nancy » 29 oct. 2013, 13:43

Suricate a écrit :
But if the ratio of house prices to rent (which can mean that people put off buying homes if it is too high) is taken into account, Belgium, Finland, Norway, and Canada look most in danger.
Donc pour la France : plateau haut et pas d'anticipation de chute des prix pour Goldman Sachs (d'ailleurs je cherche l'étude mais impossible de mettre la main dessus...).

La conclusion :
"Healthy isn't the word that springs to mind but for a while Ben's monetary madness is the ultimate palliative."
Vers l'infini et au delà.
Image Image Image Image Image
Image

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Suricate
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Re: Where’s the next property bubble building?

#3 Message par Suricate » 29 oct. 2013, 13:48

Je cherche justement l'étude...

De ce que j'ai compris dans l'article, les économistes de GS supposent qu'au delà de 5 ans sans variation significative on est en présence d'un nouveau paradigme. Et comme ils ne se trompent jamais je voudrai bien savoir comment ils arrivent à cette conclusion :wink:
Gustave de Nancy a écrit :Image Image Image Image Image
Tu m'étonnes :mrgreen:

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